2027: The Year of the Great Climate and Human Convivence Challenge
The planet is entering a new phase of climatic tension. Major international forecasting models now confirm the return of the El Niño phenomenon for the 2026–2027 period, with an intensity that could rank among the strongest ever recorded in modern history. Climate scientists warn that this is not an isolated episode, but rather the dangerous convergence of an extreme natural phenomenon with a planet already weakened by decades of anthropogenic global warming.
The consequences are expected to be felt across every continent: historic droughts, massive wildfires, torrential rainfall, catastrophic flooding, food insecurity, population displacement, and growing social tensions form part of a scenario that increasingly concerns scientists, governments, and international institutions alike.
El Niño is a cyclical climatic phenomenon associated with the abnormal warming of equatorial Pacific waters. Although it has always existed as part of Earth’s natural variability, its effects are now significantly amplified by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The result is a global climatic imbalance that is becoming progressively more difficult to contain. According to several international projections, 2027 could become the warmest year ever recorded, surpassing even the record established in 2024. Many experts consider it highly probable that the symbolic threshold of +1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures established in the Paris Agreement will be temporarily exceeded.
Yet behind the statistics and temperature records lies a far deeper reality: climate change is rapidly becoming one of the greatest challenges to human convivence in the twenty-first century. This will constitute one of the central themes for reflection at the II Córdoba Forum, World Convivence Forum. Climate change can no longer be understood solely as a scientific or environmental issue. It has become a profound human, social, ethical, and geopolitical challenge.
When drought destroys harvests, tensions emerge over access to water. When floods force thousands of people from their homes, displacement and migration pressures intensify. When extreme heat strikes major urban centres, inequalities deepen between those able to protect themselves and those left exposed. Climate disruption acts as a powerful multiplier of existing vulnerabilities.
Experts consistently warn that the most vulnerable societies will suffer the greatest consequences. Africa, as well as several regions of Asia and Latin America, may face particularly severe impacts. In many areas, alarming signals are already visible: increasingly destructive wildfires, severe water stress, declining agricultural productivity, and major health risks linked to heat waves and atmospheric pollution generated by the fires.
However, the greatest danger does not reside solely in the meteorological phenomenon itself. The larger risk would be to respond through fear, isolation, and confrontation. Convivence may well become the defining resilience test of our societies. In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, political polarisation, and economic fatigue, climate change risks fuelling narratives of division. Competition for resources, climate-driven migration, and widening inequalities could become major factors in social instability if these challenges are not approached through cooperation and solidarity.
This is precisely why Córdoba acquires such profound symbolic significance today. Neither climate change, pandemics, nor energy crises recognize borders. The responses to them cannot remain confined within borders either. The II Córdoba Forum, World Convivence Forum, seeks precisely to create an international space for reflection on this emerging reality. To speak about convivence in 2026 and 2027 also means speaking about water, energy, food systems, climate migration, artificial intelligence applied to crisis management, and new forms of international cooperation.
The ecological transition cannot be built solely upon technological innovation or economic transformation. It also requires a human and cultural dimension. The great challenge of the twenty-first century will not simply be reducing emissions. It will be learning how to live together in a world undergoing profound transformation.
Against the logic of confrontation, convivence emerges as an invisible yet essential infrastructure for social stability. Wherever dialogue, cooperation, and social trust exist, communities will prove far more resilient in the face of climatic disruption. Wherever fragmentation and distrust prevail, crises will become significantly more difficult to manage.
The return of El Niño reminds us of a fundamental truth: humanity shares a common climatic destiny. The question is no longer whether the planet will change. The real question is whether humanity will be capable of changing with it without losing its capacity for convivence.
